Regression to the Mean in MS Studies
Submitted by art on Wed, 2007-02-21 07:04.
When treatments for MS are evaluated, they have entrance criteria for the subjects enrolled. Usually, one of those criteria is relapse rate in the recent past.
A group of Spanish researchers took a look at how typical entrance criteria could skew the results of non-controlled trial results due to "regression to the mean."
It appears that active MS will naturally become less active over the course of a year or so, making any intervention look good. They saw as much as a 40% decrease in relapses naturally. Comparison to a control group (who would presumably suffer the same regression) is important for evaluating effects on relapse rates.
Some people are convinced
Some people are convinced that the CRABS are helping them stave off MS progression even though their current symptoms are increasing.
My personal experience with MS was that I had relapses every three months in the beginning. After a few years, my relapse rate went to two a year and then down to one a year, while I was still diagnosed RRMS. Now that I am SPMS I have no relapses, just slow progression.
I have never taken a CRAB, yet the slower relapse rates quoted by Biogen, Teva,and other pharmaceutical companies do not appear any better than my own rate of relapse decline without any intervention.
It is my opinion that markers of real accomplishment by the CRABS won't be provable until testing of gray and white matter deterioration is also done. Counting lesions as a measure of drug accomplishment is not reliable since the lesions self heal or hide deep in the brain.
I hand an eopendamoma
I hand an eopendamoma r43moved 11 yerw ago nd thEN diagnosed with mS